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Alas, with a few exceptions like Ultima, Bughouse, Chessgi and Losing Chess (and afew others), 100 to 200 people trying a noncommerical Chess variant <em>is</em> popular. For a Chess variant. (National verisons of Chess like Shogi, Xiangqi or Makruk are another category in my opinion.)
I have to be precise: I think Chess is not a VERY popular game in America, but it is certainly played by a significative number of players. Chess variants are less popular. I live in Venezuela, here some variants are played eventually in certain circles, but the number of players of Chess variants is relatively modest, perhaps of four or five hundred of persons that sometimes play some variant. Not all known variants are played, fundamentally these people plays Grand Chess and/or Ultima, and in less proportion, Omega Chess, and in the last times, I have seen people playing Rococo, with Mirror Array, and these persons are part of the ULTIMA fans. How many persons?. The real fans of Rococo may be two or three decens, and the game may have been played at least once by, say, between one and two hundred, It is my stimation. Is it popular?. Well, it depends how are you measuring the things. Chess Variants are NOT very popular, so perhaps these number means 'relative popularity', although I´m not sure to apply this qualificative ...
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